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Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 110.2 West.  Dora is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h.  This general motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected today and Wednesday,
with a turn toward the west expected by Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Dora is expected to pass just north of Socorro
Island later today, and remain well south of the Baja California
peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Dora could become a remnant low by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula today through Wednesday.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

Tropical Storm Calvin Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 122033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017

The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better
organized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway
around the southern portion of the circulation.  Accordingly,
Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5,
corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt.  On this basis, the system
is being named.  Although a little more intensification is possible
before the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in
strength is anticipated.  After landfall, the tropical cyclone will
likely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico.

Although the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible
satellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological
service of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion
has resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt.  Although
steering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that
there should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to
push the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico.  The
official track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution.

The main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 15.5N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 15.8N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 16.0N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  14/0600Z 16.2N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 15 May 2017 09:02:49 GMT

Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E
DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192016
200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016

CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E

The depression's cloud pattern is a little less organized than it
was earlier today.  Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level
center near the western edge of a small mass of deep convection
whose convective tops have warmed, presumably due to some
northwesterly shear. Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.0 and
T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity
estimate is held at 30 kt, on the lower end of these values.

The large-scale factors influencing the intensity of the depression
over the next few days are less conducive than previously assessed.
Even though the cyclone will be moving over waters around 28 deg C
and will encounter an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, some west-
northwesterly shear is forecast to persist.  A marginally moist
environment surrounding the tropical cyclone is also forecast to
dry further.  The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some over the
previous one in line with the current guidance and much below the
dynamical guidance.  Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in 3 to
4 days, westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt is expected to reduce the
system to a remnant low.

The cyclone's heading has been more westerly than previously
estimated, and a longer-term average of satellite fixes yields an
initial motion estimate of 285/05.  Global models show the cyclone
turning abruptly northward within the next 24 hours and then north-
northeastward as it rotates around a mid-tropospheric cyclone slowly
retrograding near 18N 140W.  When the cyclone decouples in 3 to 4
days, a turn toward the west is likely as the remnant low is steered
by the low-level trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is shifted
toward the left of the previous track because of the more westerly
initial motion and lies well west of the multi-model consensus,
closest to the leftmost ECMWF model.

The next advisory will be issued issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 11.6N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

NNNN

Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121441
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Satellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show
a ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the
eastern half of Orlene's circulation.  A blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial
intensity of 80 kt for this advisory.  Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into
the southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific
air mass.  Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence
at that time.  The official forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight,
then more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying
mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United
States.  By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become
reestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough lifts northeastward.  This change in the synoptic steering
pattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration
in forward motion.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an
earlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
cyclone has continued to become more organized, with a well-defined
low- to mid-level eye noted in a 2336Z SSMI/S overpass. Orlene now
has a large, circular CDO along with a symmetrical and expanding
upper-level outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT
is 60-65 kt. Given the rather large average eye diameter of about 35
nmi, the initial intensity is set below the ADT values and follows
the subjective estimate of 55 kt.

The initial motion is 305/08 kt based heavily on microwave eye
position estimates. Although there is some divergence in the models,
they are good agreement overall on Orlene gradually slowing down
and moving north-northwestward and northward into a break in the
subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that, the break in
the ridge along 120W longitude is forecast to fill back in as a
shortwave trough lifts out quickly to the northeast. The
re-strengthening ridge to the north of Orlene is then expected to
accelerate the cyclone on a westward track on days 3-5. The new NHC
forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the
GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

Orlene is expected to remain in a very low-shear environment for the
next 72 hours, which typically favors rapid intensification.
However, the cyclone is also expected to remain embedded within a
fairly dry mid-level environment with humidity values of 50-55
percent. Given that Orlene has already developed a solid eyewall
structure, little if any dry air intrusions should be able to
penetrate into the eye in the short term.  Based on the favorable
low-shear and already impressive outflow pattern, a period of rapid
intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours, followed
by a leveling off in the intensity due to cooler waters and possible
cold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone. By 48 hours and
beyond, gradual weakening is expected due to Orlene moving into a
considerably drier and more stable environment characterized by
mid-level humidities in the 20- to 30-percent range. The intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope close
to the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble models, and is just a
little higher than the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.6N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 17.3N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 18.0N 119.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 18.6N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 19.2N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 18.9N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 18.9N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

Post-Tropical Cyclone NEWTON Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072034
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of
southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite
imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep
convection.  In addition, there have been no surface reports of
sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data
from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt
at an elevation of 4000 feet.  Therefore, Newton is being declared a
post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt.  Based on the
data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved
into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.

There have been some adjustments to the center position based on
visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16
kt.  The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to
turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.
Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,
and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the
Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.

Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue
over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico
through tonight.  Consult statements from your local National
Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings.  The
Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on
Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and
flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Graphics


alt="Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 20:33:39 GMT


alt="Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 21:07:50 GMT

Tropical Storm KAY Graphics


alt="Tropical Storm KAY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 20:33:27 GMT


alt="Tropical Storm KAY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 21:07:14 GMT

Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090844
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula.  Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-
and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.  An automated
Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern
portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind
gusts during the past few hours.

The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the
effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level
air sooner than anticipated.  As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now
calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and
moves into a more stable environment.  Javier is forecast to weaken
to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on
Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized
deep convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  Javier is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central
United States.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown