The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.
The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15th through November 30th.
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016
ZCZC MIATCPEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 140.4W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 140.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast late Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E The depression's cloud pattern is a little less organized than it was earlier today. Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level center near the western edge of a small mass of deep convection whose convective tops have warmed, presumably due to some northwesterly shear. Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.0 and T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt, on the lower end of these values. The large-scale factors influencing the intensity of the depression over the next few days are less conducive than previously assessed. Even though the cyclone will be moving over waters around 28 deg C and will encounter an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, some west- northwesterly shear is forecast to persist. A marginally moist environment surrounding the tropical cyclone is also forecast to dry further. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some over the previous one in line with the current guidance and much below the dynamical guidance. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in 3 to 4 days, westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt is expected to reduce the system to a remnant low. The cyclone's heading has been more westerly than previously estimated, and a longer-term average of satellite fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 285/05. Global models show the cyclone turning abruptly northward within the next 24 hours and then north- northeastward as it rotates around a mid-tropospheric cyclone slowly retrograding near 18N 140W. When the cyclone decouples in 3 to 4 days, a turn toward the west is likely as the remnant low is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is shifted toward the left of the previous track because of the more westerly initial motion and lies well west of the multi-model consensus, closest to the leftmost ECMWF model. The next advisory will be issued issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.6N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121441 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016 Satellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show a ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the eastern half of Orlene's circulation. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial intensity of 80 kt for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into the southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific air mass. Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence at that time. The official forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt. The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight, then more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United States. By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become reestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned trough lifts northeastward. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration in forward motion. The tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an earlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016 Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the cyclone has continued to become more organized, with a well-defined low- to mid-level eye noted in a 2336Z SSMI/S overpass. Orlene now has a large, circular CDO along with a symmetrical and expanding upper-level outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is 60-65 kt. Given the rather large average eye diameter of about 35 nmi, the initial intensity is set below the ADT values and follows the subjective estimate of 55 kt. The initial motion is 305/08 kt based heavily on microwave eye position estimates. Although there is some divergence in the models, they are good agreement overall on Orlene gradually slowing down and moving north-northwestward and northward into a break in the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that, the break in the ridge along 120W longitude is forecast to fill back in as a shortwave trough lifts out quickly to the northeast. The re-strengthening ridge to the north of Orlene is then expected to accelerate the cyclone on a westward track on days 3-5. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the GFS-ECMWF model solutions. Orlene is expected to remain in a very low-shear environment for the next 72 hours, which typically favors rapid intensification. However, the cyclone is also expected to remain embedded within a fairly dry mid-level environment with humidity values of 50-55 percent. Given that Orlene has already developed a solid eyewall structure, little if any dry air intrusions should be able to penetrate into the eye in the short term. Based on the favorable low-shear and already impressive outflow pattern, a period of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity due to cooler waters and possible cold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone. By 48 hours and beyond, gradual weakening is expected due to Orlene moving into a considerably drier and more stable environment characterized by mid-level humidities in the 20- to 30-percent range. The intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope close to the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble models, and is just a little higher than the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.3N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.0N 119.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.6N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.2N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 18.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 18.9N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072034 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016 Although moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite imagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep convection. In addition, there have been no surface reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data from Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt at an elevation of 4000 feet. Therefore, Newton is being declared a post-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt. Based on the data available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved into southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone. There have been some adjustments to the center position based on visible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16 kt. The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to turn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation. Wind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight, and the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the Arizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning. Heavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue over portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico through tonight. Consult statements from your local National Weather Service office for possible flash flood warnings. The Weather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on Newton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat to the southwestern United States. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090844 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016 Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near or over the southern Baja California peninsula. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T- and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt. An automated Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few hours. The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level air sooner than anticipated. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and moves into a more stable environment. Javier is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon. The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt. Javier is forecast to continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown