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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151738
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALETTA A LET- AH MIRIAM MEER- YIM
BUD BUHD NORMAN NOR- MUHN
CARLOTTA KAR LOT- UH OLIVIA UH LIV- EE UH
DANIEL DAN- YUHL PAUL PALL
EMILIA EE MILL- YA ROSA ROH- ZUH
FABIO FAH- BEE O SERGIO SIR- GEE OH
GILMA GIL- MAH TARA TAIR- UH
HECTOR HEHK- TOR VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
ILEANA ILL AY AH- NAH WILLA WIH- LAH
JOHN JAHN XAVIER ZAY- VEE UR
KRISTY KRIS- TEE YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LANE LAYNE ZEKE ZEEK

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST PACIFIC TWITTER
FEED IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML...IN ALL
LOWER CASE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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