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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111134
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC HURRICANE ERNESTO...IS CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY OR SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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