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East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141730
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 1725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE DIMINISHED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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