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Hurricane BUD Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE.  A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.
 
BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
 
BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. 
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO.  THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
 
BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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