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Hurricane BUD Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2.  THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. 
 
BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR.  IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL.  THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.
 
BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.  THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.
 
DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.  DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 

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