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Hurricane BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 241439
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1500 UTC THU MAY 24 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 106.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 
 

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