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Hurricane BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 16

Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 242054
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
2100 UTC THU MAY 24 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT 
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.4W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  35 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 106.4W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 105.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  35SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  25SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  25SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 105.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 106.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
 
 

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