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Hurricane BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 17

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250232
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
0300 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 106.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

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