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Hurricane BUD Forecast/Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250832
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
0900 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 105.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 105.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

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