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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240853
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
...BUD CONTINUES TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 107.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM PUNTO TELMO WESTWARD TO
CABO CORRIENTES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
  
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO LATE FRIDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY FRIDAY.
  
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE STATES
OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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