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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 15

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241439
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 106.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST.  BUD IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST TODAY.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BUD THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 

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