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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 15A

Issued at 1100 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241735
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
 
...BUD STILL INTENSIFYING...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST.  BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BUD IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
 

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