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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 18A

Issued at 500 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 251144
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
...HURRICANE BUD EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TODAY...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
AS A HURRICANE.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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