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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 251451
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
...BUD WEAKENS SOME...STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUD IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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