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Hurricane BUD Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 252035
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
 
...BUD A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE HEADING FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 105.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.  AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
 
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TODAY...BUD COULD STILL BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 12 MILES... 19 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.  A SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 55 MPH...89 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN MANZANILLO.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIRFORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.
 
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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