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Hurricane BUD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241439
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012               
1500 UTC THU MAY 24 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90   
KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       7      33      50      59
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       4      25      40      35      29
TROPICAL STORM   X      10      55      56      25      15      11
HURRICANE       99      90      41      13       2       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        8      53      32      11       2       X       X
HUR CAT 2       60      27       6       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3       30       9       3       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        2       1       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    85KT    70KT    55KT    35KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
P VALLARTA     34  1   3( 4)  18(22)   5(27)   7(34)   X(34)   1(35)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1  22(23)  34(57)   3(60)  10(70)   X(70)   X(70)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   5(24)   X(24)   X(24)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1  16(17)  32(49)   5(54)   8(62)   X(62)   X(62)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
L CARDENAS     34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   4(14)   X(14)   1(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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