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Hurricane BUD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 250836
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012               
0900 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95   
KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       5      30      56      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       2      20      45      32      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   3      39      36      24      11      NA      NA
HURRICANE       97      59      39       1       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       59      42      25       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       34      14       9       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        5       3       4       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   85KT    65KT    45KT    35KT    25KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
MAZATLAN       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN BLAS       34  2  16(18)   7(25)   4(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SAN BLAS       50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
P VALLARTA     34  8  55(63)   5(68)   4(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)
P VALLARTA     50  1  11(12)   5(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
P VALLARTA     64  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34 85  12(97)   X(97)   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50 12  47(59)   3(62)   5(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  3  23(26)   2(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
MANZANILLO     34 74  16(90)   2(92)   3(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
MANZANILLO     50  5  23(28)   3(31)   5(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MANZANILLO     64  X   8( 8)   1( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
L CARDENAS     34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  2  12(14)   9(23)   1(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  

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