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Hurricane CARLOTTA Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151438
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.  THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. 
AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
 
USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 14.0N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 14.9N  96.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 15.9N  97.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
 36H  17/0000Z 16.4N  98.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST
 48H  17/1200Z 16.6N  99.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
 72H  18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  19/1200Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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