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Hurricane CARLOTTA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152051
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND
ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS.  THE
LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW
GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
FOR 12-24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN
12-24 HR.  IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN
COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TO DISRUPT THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT
THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT
REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES.  THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED
BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA
WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY.  THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL.
 
THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 14.8N  96.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 15.7N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  98.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 16.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 16.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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