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Hurricane CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 160837
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
 
...CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS AND MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 98.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
INLAND OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD
MOVE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER OR ALONG THE COAST.
 
SINCE CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER THIS MORNING...AND BECOME A DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER AND NEAR THE COAST...AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS
COULD SPREAD WESTWARD LATER TODAY. 
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...100 TO 200 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...375 MM...ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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