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Hurricane CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151438
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
...CARLOTTA BECOMES A HURRICANE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST.  CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE CARLOTTA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO
10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA.  ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO
200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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