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Hurricane CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 7A

Issued at 1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 151748
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN......
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.  CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST OF
MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...145 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNING AREAS.  HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO
10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA.  ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO
200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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