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Hurricane CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 152350
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
...EYE OF CARLOTTA JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO VERY NEAR PUERTO
ANGEL...   
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 96.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO
CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST. CARLOTTA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.  THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SHOULD
MOVE OVER OR ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO
ANGEL AND ACAPULCO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER LAND...NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVES
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION IN HUATULCO
RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ALREADY OCCURRING WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...
300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH
6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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