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Hurricane CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 160552
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOTTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
1100 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST 
OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 97.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST. CARLOTTA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H.  THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA WILL MOVE JUST INLAND OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ONLY
A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE OVER WATER OR ALONG THE COAST.
 
SINCE CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CARLOTTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN
OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHERN OAXACA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15
INCHES...300 TO 375 MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA
COAST...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES...150 TO 300 MM...ALONG THE GUERRERO
COAST.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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