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Hurricane CARLOTTA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 152050
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012               
2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       7      40      54      61      71
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1      24      38      32      25      21
TROPICAL STORM  19      37      28      21      14      14       7
HURRICANE       81      62      42       1       X       1       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       13      35      17       1       X       1       X
HUR CAT 2       51      20      15       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3       16       7       8       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        2       2       2       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    70KT    45KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   4( 5)  12(17)   3(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  2  33(35)  23(58)   1(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ACAPULCO       50  X   7( 7)  19(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ACAPULCO       64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
P MALDONADO    34 39  49(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
P MALDONADO    50  4  57(61)   5(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
P MALDONADO    64  X  26(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
P ANGEL        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P ANGEL        50 88   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
P ANGEL        64  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATULCO       34 97   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
HUATULCO       50 51   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
HUATULCO       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Hurricane CARLOTTA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 152050
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012               
2100 UTC FRI JUN 15 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       7      40      54      61      71
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1      24      38      32      25      21
TROPICAL STORM  19      37      28      21      14      14       7
HURRICANE       81      62      42       1       X       1       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       13      35      17       1       X       1       X
HUR CAT 2       51      20      15       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3       16       7       8       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        2       2       2       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   95KT    70KT    45KT    35KT    30KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
L CARDENAS     34  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   4( 5)  12(17)   3(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)
ZIHUATANEJO    50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  2  33(35)  23(58)   1(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ACAPULCO       50  X   7( 7)  19(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
ACAPULCO       64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
P MALDONADO    34 39  49(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
P MALDONADO    50  4  57(61)   5(66)   X(66)   1(67)   X(67)   X(67)
P MALDONADO    64  X  26(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
P ANGEL        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
P ANGEL        50 88   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
P ANGEL        64  8   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
HUATULCO       34 97   X(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
HUATULCO       50 51   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)   X(52)
HUATULCO       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

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