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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070237
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012
 
DANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A
65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C. 
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST.  THE
NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND
BEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
 
DANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH
5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.  DANIEL
HAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND
THE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN
CAPTURING THAT MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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