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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 070833
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
 
HINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE
DATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC
INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
ADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE
COMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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