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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 071434
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE
OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE AGAIN
TRYING TO BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED IR AND VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE...TO 75 KT...BASED ON
A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL LATER TODAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SOON ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR MASS.  THEREFORE....IT IS PRESUMED THAT
DANIEL HAS REACHED...OR IS VERY NEAR...ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

DANIEL CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOW SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL SUITE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 14.9N 119.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 15.5N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 15.8N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 16.4N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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