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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 072031
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE...TO 80
KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  DANIEL MOVED OVER A SLIGHT
RIDGE IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS PROBABLY
CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT STRENGTHENING EPISODE.  AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES WEST OF 120W LONGITUDE...DANIEL WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT
OF COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM
GUIDANCE.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS FAR
NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MOTION CONTINUES
TO BE WESTWARD...OR 270/10.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS A
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD RELOCATION.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 14.6N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 14.8N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 15.2N 127.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 15.3N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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