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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080234
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
 
DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMING
AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT AND 90 KT AT 00 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ABOUT
105 KT.  GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 90 KT.
 
DANIEL WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...SO THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES A
GRADUAL DECAY IN WINDS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST
2 DAYS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE DANIEL HAS
STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10 KT.  DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
BUILDS WESTWARD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  ALSO...IN
DIRECT CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH DAY 4.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 121.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.7N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.3N 131.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 16.5N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 16.0N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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