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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 082036
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

CENTRAL CONVECTION HAD BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...
ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED.  THE EYE
IS STILL APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND IS CLOUD FILLED ON THE
VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. 
ALTHOUGH DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM PREDICTION
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

DANIEL CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREK AND THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 275/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT FOR THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONES AND
LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 15.2N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 15.3N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 15.6N 129.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 15.7N 132.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 15.8N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 15.9N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 16.0N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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