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Hurricane DANIEL Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090859
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS
DANIEL MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65 KT AND T5.0/90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CIRA/NESDIS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 82 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 275/13 KT. DANIEL IS ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.

DESPITE BEING IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
RELATIVELY COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 24C AND INGESTS
MORE STABLE AIR. DURING THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH COULD INDUCE
MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN EXPECTED...CAUSING DANIEL TO BECOME A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 15.4N 127.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 15.5N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 15.6N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 15.7N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 15.8N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 15.8N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 15.6N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0600Z 15.4N 156.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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