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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2012

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 111434
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
1500 UTC WED JUL 11 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 117.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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