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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Advisory Number 17

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2012

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 112043
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
2100 UTC WED JUL 11 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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