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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120237
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

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