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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 120843
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
0900 UTC THU JUL 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 120.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 120.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

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