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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 121438
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
1500 UTC THU JUL 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 121.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 16.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 121.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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