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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100235
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING
THE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
OF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102
KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING
EMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE
EMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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