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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 102033
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED-LOOKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  USING
A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES YIELDS A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  EMILIA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPEDED OUTFLOW
TO THE EAST...AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS BY 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW.  SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING
IS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS A MUCH FASTER RATE
OF WEAKENING THEN SHOWN HERE.
 
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/8.  THERE ARE NO REASONS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN
AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF
PREDICTION. 

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 
1744 UTC ASCAT PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 13.9N 114.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 14.3N 115.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 15.7N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 16.8N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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