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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110238
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012
 
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS
WEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK
CI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND
TRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS
FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
EMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND
A FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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