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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112044
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012
 
EMILIA MADE A LITTLE BIT OF A COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED
A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DISTINCT EYE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED
AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS PROBABLY LED TO A HIGHER INTENSITY EARLIER...BUT SINCE
THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
A LITTLE BIT. THERE COULD SOME ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER WATERS IN
12 HOURS OR SO.

EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO
IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED SO
EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING CYCLONE PROGRESSING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WESTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 14.8N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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