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Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 091453
TCDEP5
 
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A
CATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE
PRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT.  THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER.  HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME
LESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO
BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. 
EMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  ASSUMING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36
HOURS.  AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED.

EMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT
MOTION IS ABOUT 290/10.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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