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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141432
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
1500 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 113.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

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