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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142035
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 115.1W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 115.1W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 115.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

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