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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151435
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
1500 UTC SUN JUL 15 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.4W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 150SE 100SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 117.4W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 117.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 120.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 121.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 25.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.0N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 117.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

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