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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142333
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE
COOLED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.
 
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WIND RADII
FORECASTS...OTHER THE ADDITION OF 64-KT RADII AT 36 HOURS. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
 

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