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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150233
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012
 
FABIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE RELEASE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
AROUND 0000 UTC. THE 20 N MI EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT IN
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 90
KT...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.
 
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT FABIO IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AS THE EYE
IS CLOSE TO THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER SUB-26C WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THE SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASE BEYOND THAT TIME. THESE
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
AHEAD OF FABIO SHOULD CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4
DAYS WHEN IT IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 20C AND ENCOUNTERS AND AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM.
 
FABIO IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
HANGS ON TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
FABIO TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 16.4N 115.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 19.0N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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