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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 17

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160235
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED AS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FABIO MOVES
ACROSS A SHARP SST GRADIENT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT
TIME AS THE CYCLONE REACHES SUB-23C WATERS BY 24 HOURS WITH EVEN
COOLER SSTS AHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS
SHOULD SHEAR OFF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FABIO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 4
OR 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/09. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO AN EXPANDING BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE SHEARS
APART...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 17.8N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

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