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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161433
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
 
THE EYE OF FABIO REMAINS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD FILLED IN EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE RATE
OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN AS FABIO MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE
CYCLONE...AND FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN 48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED AS
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOME A 
SHALLOW SYSTEM.
 
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 18.9N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 19.9N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 21.4N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 24.4N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 

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